He Tātaritanga Whānui mō ngā Utu Whakaputa Hiko o ngā Wāhanga Whakaputa Hau Taiao

I. Te Hanganga Matua o ngā Utu Whakaputa Hiko

Ko te utu whakaputa hiko o ngā waeine whakaputa hau māori e whakamahi ana i te utu taurite o te hiko (LCOE) hei tohu matua mō te kaute, e kapi ana i ngā rāngai matua e toru: te utu wahie, te utu haumitanga hanga me te utu whakahaere me te tiaki. Ko te ōwehenga o ngā mea e toru e whakaatu ana i te tohatoha rerekētanga mārama, ko te utu wahie te mea nui, ā, e whakatau tika ana i te taumata utu whānui.

(I) Te Utu Wahie: Te Matua o te Ōwehenga Utu, Te Pānga Tino Hira mai i ngā Pikinga

Ko te utu wahie te wāhanga nui rawa atu o te utu whakaputa hiko o ngā waeine whakaputa hau māori. E whakaatu ana ngā raraunga tātai ahumahi ko tōna wāhanga i te nuinga o te wā ka eke ki te 60%-80%, ā, ka neke atu i te 80% i roto i ētahi taiao mākete tino kino, koia te taurangi tino nui e pā ana ki te piki me te heke o ngā utu whakaputa hiko. Ko te tātai i te utu wahie e whakawhirinaki ana ki te utu hau māori (tae atu ki te utu hoko me te utu tuku me te tohatoha) me te whai huatanga o te waeine whakaputa hiko. Ko te tātai matua ko: Utu Wahie (yuan/kWh) = Utu Waeine Hau Māori (yuan/mita pūtoru) ÷ Whai Huatanga Whakaputa Hiko Waeine (kWh/mita pūtoru).

I te taha o te taumata ahumahi matua o nāianei, ko te utu hau māori ā-rohe toharite ki te tipu he tata ki te 2.8 yuan/mita pūtoru. Ko te whai huatanga whakaputa hiko o ngā waeine tāpoi hau huringa whakakotahi (CCGT) he tata ki te 5.5-6.0 kWh/mita pūtoru, e rite ana ki te utu wahie whakaputa hiko o te waeine tata ki te 0.47-0.51 yuan; ki te whakamahia ngā waeine miihini mura ā-roto tohatoha, ko te whai huatanga whakaputa hiko he tata ki te 3.8-4.2 kWh/mita pūtoru, ā, ka piki te utu wahie whakaputa hiko ki te 0.67-0.74 yuan. He mea tika kia mōhio ko te 40% o te hau māori ā-rohe e whakawhirinaki ana ki ngā kawemai. Ko ngā rerekētanga o ngā utu wāhi LNG o te ao me ngā huringa o te tauira whakaputa, tuku, rokiroki me te hokohoko o te pūtake hau ā-rohe ka tukuna tika ki te pito utu wahie. Hei tauira, i te wā o te pikinga tere o ngā utu wāhi JKM Āhia i te tau 2022, ko te utu wahie whakaputa hiko o ngā umanga hiko hau ā-rohe i neke atu i te 0.6 yuan, he nui rawa atu i te awhe pakaru-taurite.

(II) Te Utu Pūtea Hanga: Te Ōwehenga Pūmau o te Pūtea Pūmau, Te Hekenga i Āwhinahia e te Rohe

He haumitanga pumau kotahi te utu haumitanga hanga, ko te nuinga kei roto ko te hoko taputapu, te miihini ā-iwi, te tāutanga me te whakatūnga, te hoko whenua me ngā utu putea. Ko tōna ōwehenga i roto i te utu whakaputa hiko o te huringa ora katoa he tata ki te 15%-25%, ā, ko ngā mea matua e awe ana ko te taumata hangarau taputapu me te tere o te rohe.

Mai i te tirohanga o te hoko taputapu, kua roa te hangarau matua o ngā tāwhana hau taumaha e puritia ana e ngā kamupene nunui o te ao, ā, kei te teitei tonu ngā utu o ngā taputapu kawemai me ngā wāhanga matua. Ko te utu haumi pūmau o te kotahi kilowatt mō tētahi kaupapa whakaputa hiko kotahi miriona-kilowatt he tata ki te 4500-5500 yuan, ā, ko te tāwhana hau me te poiha wera para tautoko he tata ki te 45% o te katoa o ngā haumitanga taputapu. I ngā tau tata nei, kua tere ake ngā whanaketanga hangarau a ngā umanga ā-rohe. Kua āta kitea e ngā umanga pēnei i a Weichai Power me Shanghai Electric te whakaurunga o ngā waeine whakaputa hau maori mahi-waenga me ngā waeine whakaputa hau maori mahi-māmā me ngā wāhanga matua, ka whakaitihia te utu hoko o ngā taputapu rite mā te 15%-20% ki te whakataurite ki ngā hua kawemai, ka whakaitihia te utu haumi hanga whānui. Hei tāpiri, ka pāngia hoki ngā utu hanga e te kaha o te waeine me ngā āhuatanga tāutanga. He poto ngā huringa tāutanga o ngā waeine iti kua tohatohahia (2-3 marama noa iho), he iti te haumitanga hangarau ā-iwi, ā, he iti ake ngā utu haumitanga o te waeine kilowatt i ngā teihana hiko pokapū nui; Ahakoa he nui te haumitanga tīmatanga o ngā waeine huringa whakakotahi nui, he nui ngā painga o ēnei ki te whai huatanga o te whakaputa hiko, ā, ka taea te whakaheke i ngā utu haumitanga o ngā waeine mā te whakaputa hiko tauine nui.

(III) Te Utu Whakahaere me te Tiaki: Te Pūtea Tonu mō te Wā Roa, He Wāhi Nui mō te Arotau Hangarau

Ko te utu whakahaere me te tiaki he haumitanga tonu i roto i te huringa ora katoa, tae atu ki te tirotiro me te tiaki i ngā taputapu, te whakakapinga wāhanga, te utu mahi, te whakamahinga hinu hinu, te maimoatanga tiaki taiao, me ētahi atu. Ko tōna ōwehenga i roto i te utu whakaputa hiko o te huringa ora katoa he tata ki te 5%-10%. Mai i te tirohanga a te ahumahi, ko te whakapaunga matua o te utu whakahaere me te tiaki ko te whakakapinga o ngā wāhanga matua me ngā ratonga tiaki, i roto i ēnei ko te utu tiaki waenga o tētahi tāpine hau nui kotahi ka eke ki te 300 miriona yuan, ā, he tino teitei te utu whakakapinga o ngā wāhanga matua.

He rerekē ngā utu whakahaere me te tiaki o ngā waeine he rerekē ngā taumata hangarau: ahakoa he nui ake te haumitanga tuatahi o ngā waeine whakaputa hiko teitei, ko te whakamahinga hinu whakahinuhinu he 1/10 noa iho o ngā waeine noa, he roa ake ngā huringa whakawhiti hinu, ā, he iti ake te tūponotanga o te korenga o te kati, ka taea ai te whakaiti i ngā utu mahi me ngā mate kati; engari, he maha ngā pakaru o ngā waeine hangarau-muri, e kore e piki ake te utu o te whakakapinga wāhanga anake, engari ka pā hoki ki te moni whiwhi whakaputa hiko nā te kati, ka piki ake te utu whānui. I ngā tau tata nei, me te whakapai ake i te hangarau whakahaere me te tiaki ā-rohe me te whakamahinga o ngā pūnaha tātaritanga atamai, kua heke haere ngā utu whakahaere me te tiaki o ngā waeine whakaputa hiko māori ā-rohe. Nā te whakapai ake i te tere tiaki motuhake o ngā wāhanga matua kua heke te utu whakakapinga mā te neke atu i te 20%, ā, kua roa ake te wā tiaki ki te 32,000 hāora, ka whakawhāiti ake i te wāhi mō ngā whakapaunga whakahaere me te tiaki.

II. Ngā Taurangi Matua e Pā Ana ki ngā Utu Whakaputa Hiko

Haunga ngā wāhanga matua o runga ake nei, ka pāngia hoki ngā utu whakaputa hiko o ngā waeine whakaputa hau māori e ngā taurangi maha pērā i te tikanga utu hau, te aronga kaupapa here, te whanaketanga o te mākete waro, te tahora rohe me ngā hāora whakamahinga waeine, ā, ko te pānga o te tikanga utu hau me te whanaketanga o te mākete waro te mea tino whānui.

(I) Te Tikanga Utu Hau me te Pūtāhui Pūtake Hau

Ko te pumau o ngā utu hau māori me ngā tauira hoko ka whakatau tika i te ia o ngā utu wahie, ā, ka pā ki ngā utu whakaputa hiko whānui. I tēnei wā, kua hangaia e te utu hau māori ā-rohe he tikanga hononga "utu paearu + utu rere". Ka honoa te utu paearu ki ngā utu hinu mata me te LNG o te ao, ā, ka whakatikatikaina te utu rere kia rite ki te tuku me te tono o te mākete. Ka tukuna tika ngā piki me ngā heke o ngā utu ki te pito utu whakaputa hiko. Ka pā hoki te kaha whakamana puna hau ki ngā utu. I ngā rohe pokapū kawenga pērā i te Yangtze River Delta me te Pearl River Delta, he kikī ngā teihana whiwhi LNG, he teitei te taumata hononga whatunga paipa, he iti te utu tuku me te tohatoha, he pumau te tuku puna hau, ā, he ngāwari te whakahaere i te utu wahie; i te rohe raki-mā-uru, he iti noa iho i te tohatoha puna hau me ngā whare tuku me te tohatoha, he teitei te utu tuku me te tohatoha hau māori, ka piki ake te utu whakaputa hiko o ngā waeine whakaputa i te rohe. Hei tāpiri, ka taea e ngā umanga te pupuri i ngā utu puna hau mā te hainatanga i ngā whakaaetanga tuku hau mō te wā roa, ka karohia ngā mōrearea utu e puta mai ana i ngā piki me ngā heke o ngā utu hau o te ao.

(II) Te Aronga Kaupapa Here me te Tikanga Mākete

Ko ngā tikanga kaupapa here e pā ana ki ngā utu whānui me ngā taumata moni whiwhi o ngā waeine whakaputa hau māori mā te tuku utu me te utu moni whiwhi. I ngā tau tata nei, kua āta whakatairangahia e Haina te whakahoutanga o te utu hiko wāhanga-rua mō te whakaputa hiko hau māori, i whakatinanahia tuatahitia i roto i ngā kawanatanga pērā i a Shanghai, Jiangsu me Guangdong. Ka whakamanahia te whakaoranga utu pumau mā te utu kaha, ā, ka honoa te utu pūngao ki te utu hau hei tuku utu wahie. I roto i ēnei, kua whakapiki ake a Guangdong i te utu kaha mai i te 100 yuan/kW/tau ki te 264 yuan/kW/tau, ka taea te kapi i te 70%-80% o ngā utu pumau o te kaupapa, ā, ka whakaitihia te raruraru o te tuku utu. I taua wā anō, kua whakapai ake te kaupapa here utu mō ngā waeine tīmatanga-mutu tere i roto i te mākete ratonga āwhina i te hanganga moni whiwhi o ngā kaupapa hiko hau. Kua eke te utu utu ture teitei i roto i ētahi rohe ki te 0.8 yuan/kWh, he nui ake i te moni whiwhi whakaputa hiko tuku iho.

(III) Te Whanaketanga o te Mākete Waro me ngā Painga Waro-Iti

I te whakapai tonutanga o te mākete hokohoko mana tukunga waro ā-motu, kua āta whakaarohia ngā utu waro, ā, kua noho hei āhuatanga nui e pā ana ki te ōhanga whanaunga o ngā waeine whakaputa hau māori. Ko te kaha tukunga hauhā waro o ngā waeine whakaputa hau māori he tata ki te 50% o te kaha o te hiko waro (tata ki te 380 karamu o te CO₂/kWh, me te tata ki te 820 karamu o te CO₂/kWh mō te hiko waro). I te taha o te pikinga o ngā utu waro, kei te kitea tonu ngā painga iti-waro. Ko te utu waro ā-rohe o nāianei e tata ana ki te 50 yuan/tana o te CO₂, ā, e matapaetia ana ka piki ki te 150-200 yuan/tana i te tau 2030. Mēnā ka tangohia he waeine kotahi 600,000-kirowati me te tukunga ā-tau o te 3 miriona tana o te CO₂ hei tauira, me utu e te hiko waro he 450-600 miriona yuan tāpiri o ngā utu waro ia tau i taua wā, ko te hiko hau he 40% noa iho i tērā o te hiko waro, ā, ka whakawhāitihia te rerekētanga utu i waenga i te hiko hau me te hiko waro. Hei tāpiri, ka taea e ngā kaupapa hiko hau te whiwhi moni tāpiri mā te hoko i ngā toha waro tāpiri a meake nei, e matapaetia ana ka whakaiti i te utu hiko taurite-huringa-katoa mā te 3%-5%.

(IV) Ngā Hāora Whakamahinga o te Wāhanga

Ka pā tika ngā hāora whakamahinga o ngā waeine ki te pānga whakahekenga o ngā utu pumau. Ko te teitei ake o ngā hāora whakamahinga, ko te iti iho o te utu whakaputa hiko waeine. He hononga tata ngā hāora whakamahinga o ngā waeine whakaputa hau māori ki ngā āhuatanga tono: ko ngā teihana hiko pokapū, hei pūtake hiko whakahaere teitei, he 2500-3500 hāora te roa o ngā hāora whakamahinga; ko ngā teihana hiko tohatoha, e tata ana ki te tono kawenga taunga o ngā papa ahumahi me ngā pokapū raraunga, ka eke ki ngā hāora whakamahinga o te 3500-4500 hāora, ā, ka taea te whakaiti i te utu whakaputa hiko waeine mā te 0.03-0.05 yuan/kWh. Mēnā he iti iho i te 2000 hāora ngā hāora whakamahinga, kāore e taea te whakahekenga tika i ngā utu pumau, ka hua ake he pikinga nui o te utu whakaputa hiko whānui, tae atu ki ngā mate.

III. Te Tūnga o te Utu Ahumahi o Nāianei

I te whakakotahitanga me ngā raraunga ahumahi o nāianei, i raro i te horopaki paearu o te utu hau māori o te 2.8 yuan/mita pūtoru, ngā hāora whakamahinga o te 3000 hāora me te utu waro o te 50 yuan/tana o te CO₂, ko te utu taurite huringa-ora-katoa o te hiko o ngā kaupapa tāpoi hau huringa whakakotahi (CCGT) he tata ki te 0.52-0.60 yuan/kWh, he paku teitei ake i te hiko waro (tata ki te 0.45-0.50 yuan/kWh), engari he iti iho i te utu whānui o te pūngao whakahou me te rokiroki pūngao (tata ki te 0.65-0.80 yuan/kWh).

Mai i te tirohanga o ngā rerekētanga ā-rohe, me te whai hua mai i te pumau o te tuku pūtake hau, te tautoko kaupapa here kua whakapaitia me te whakaae ki te utu waro teitei, ka taea te whakahaere i te utu taurite o te hiko o ngā tipu hiko hau i roto i ngā rohe pokapū kawenga pēnei i te Yangtze River Delta me te Pearl River Delta i te 0.45-0.52 yuan/kWh, he pūtake ōhanga mō te whakataetae ki te hiko waro; i roto i ēnei, hei tauira hokohoko waro, ko te utu waro toharite o Guangdong i te tau 2024 i eke ki te 95 yuan/tana, me te tikanga utu kaha, he mārama ake te painga utu. I te rohe raki-mā-uru, e whakawhāitihia ana e te taurangi pūtake hau me ngā utu tuku me te tohatoha, ko te utu whakaputa hiko waeine he nui ake i te 0.60 yuan/kWh, ā, he ngoikore te ōhanga kaupapa.

Mai i te tirohanga a te umanga whānui, ko te utu whakaputa hiko o ngā waeine whakaputa hau māori e whakaatu ana i te ia o te whakapai ake "iti i te wā poto, ā, e whakapai ake ana i te wā roa": i te wā poto, nā te nui o ngā utu hau me ngā haora whakamahinga iti i ētahi rohe, he iti te wāhi hua; i te wā waenga me te wā roa, me te kanorau o ngā puna hau, te rohe o ngā taputapu, te pikinga o ngā utu waro me te whakapai ake i ngā tikanga kaupapa here, ka heke haere te utu. E matapaetia ana i te tau 2030, ko te reiti hokinga mai ā-roto (IRR) o ngā kaupapa hiko hau whai hua me ngā āheinga whakahaere rawa waro ka pumau i roto i te awhe o te 6%-8%.

IV. Ngā Aratohu Matua mō te Arotau Utu

I te taha o te hanganga utu me ngā āhuatanga awe, me arotahi te arotau i ngā utu whakaputa hiko o ngā waeine whakaputa hau māori ki ngā kaupapa matua e whā o te "whakahaere wahie, te whakaiti i te haumitanga, te arotau i te whakahaere me te tiaki, me te whai i ngā kaupapa here", me te whakatutuki i te whakaiti tonu i ngā utu whānui mā te auahatanga hangarau, te whakauru rauemi me te hononga kaupapa here.

Tuatahi, kia whakapūmau i te tuku pūtake hau me te whakahaere i ngā utu wahie. Kia whakapakari i te mahi tahi me ngā kaiwhakarato hau māori nui o te motu, kia hainatia ngā whakaaetanga tuku hau mō te wā roa hei pupuri i ngā utu pūtake hau; kia whakatairanga i te whakatakotoranga kanorau o ngā pūtake hau, kia whakawhirinaki ki te whakapiki ake i te hanga hau shale o te motu me te whakapai ake i ngā whakaaetanga kawemai LNG mō te wā roa hei whakaiti i te whakawhirinaki ki ngā utu hau o te ao; i te wā kotahi, kia arotauhia te pūnaha tahunga waeine, kia whakapai ake i te pai o te whakaputa hiko, me te whakaiti i te whakapaunga wahie mō ia waeine whakaputa hiko.

Tuarua, whakatairanga i te kimi taputapu me te whakaiti i te haumitanga hanga. Whakanuia tonutia te haumitanga ki te rangahau me te whanaketanga hangarau matua, pakaruhia te arai o te kimi i ngā wāhanga matua o ngā tāwhana hau taumaha, me te whakaiti anō i ngā utu hoko taputapu; arotau i ngā tukanga hoahoa me te tāutanga kaupapa, whakapoto i te huringa hanga, me te whakaiti i ngā utu putea me te haumitanga hangarau ā-iwi; whiriwhiria te kaha o te waeine kia rite ki ngā āhuatanga tono kia tutuki ai te taurite i waenga i te haumitanga me te whai huatanga.

Tuatoru, whakapai ake i te tauira whakahaere me te tiaki, me te whakaiti i ngā utu whakahaere me te tiaki. Hangaia he tūāpapa tātaritanga atamai, whakawhirinaki ki ngā raraunga nui me te hangarau 5G hei whakatutuki i te whakatūpato wawe tika mō te hauora o ngā taputapu, me te whakatairanga i te whakawhiti i te tauira whakahaere me te tiaki mai i te "tiaki kore mahi" ki te "tūpato wawe kaha"; whakatairanga i te rohe o te hangarau whakahaere me te tiaki, whakatūria he rōpū whakahaere me te tiaki ngaio, whakapai ake i te kaha tiaki motuhake o ngā wāhanga matua, me te whakaiti i ngā utu tiaki me te whakakapinga wāhanga; tīpakohia ngā waeine mahi-teitei hei whakaiti i te tūponotanga o te rahunga kati me te paunga.

Tuawhā, hono tika ki ngā kaupapa here, me te whakamahi i ngā moni whiwhi tāpiri. Whakautu kaha ki ngā kaupapa here pēnei i te utu hiko e rua-wāhanga me te utu whakahaere tihi, me te whai kia tautokohia te tuku utu me te utu moni whiwhi; whakatakoto matatau i te pūnaha whakahaere rawa waro, whakamahia katoatia te tikanga mākete waro hei whakatutuki i ngā moni whiwhi tāpiri mā te hoko i ngā toha waro tāpiri me te whai wāhi atu ki ngā taputapu pūtea waro, me te whakapai ake i te hanganga utu; whakatairanga i te whakatakotoranga maha-pūngao "hau-whakaahua-hauwai", whakapai ake i ngā hāora whakamahinga wae, me te whakaiti i ngā utu pumau.

Whakamutunga

Ko te utu whakaputa hiko o ngā waeine whakaputa hau māori e aro ana ki te utu wahie, e tautokona ana e te haumitanga hanga me ngā utu whakahaere me te tiaki, ā, e pāngia ngātahitia ana e ngā āhuatanga maha pēnei i te utu hau, te kaupapa here, te mākete waro me te tahora ā-rohe. Ehara i te mea ko tōna ōhanga anake e whakawhirinaki ana ki tōna taumata hangarau me te kaha whakahaere, engari ki te here hohonu hoki o te tauira mākete pūngao me te aronga kaupapa here. I tēnei wā, ahakoa he paku teitei ake te utu whakaputa hiko o ngā waeine whakaputa hau māori i tērā o te hiko waro, me te whakatairanga i te whāinga "waro rua", te pikinga o ngā utu waro me te putanga o te rohe taputapu, ka kitea haeretia ōna painga waro iti me ōna painga ōhanga.

I ngā rā kei te heke mai, me te whakapai tonu i te pūnaha whakaputa, tuku, rokiroki me te hokohoko hau māori, me te hohonu ake o te whakahoutanga o te mākete hiko me te mākete waro, ka āta whakapai ake te utu whakaputa hiko o ngā waeine whakaputa hau māori, ka noho hei tautoko nui mō te hono i te pūngao whakahou me te haumarutanga pūngao. Mō ngā umanga ahumahi, he mea tika kia mārama tika ki ngā āhuatanga e pā ana ki ngā utu, kia arotahi ki ngā aronga matua o te arotautanga, me te whakaiti tonu i te utu whakaputa hiko whānui mā te auahatanga hangarau, te whakauru rauemi me te hononga kaupapa here, kia pai ake te whakataetae mākete o ngā waeine whakaputa hau māori, me te āwhina i te hanganga o te pūnaha hiko hou me te whakarerekētanga o te hanganga pūngao.